Car industry facing massive structural changes

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Car industry facing massive structural changes

Post  Administrator on Wed Sep 14, 2011 11:00 am

What are the major trends in the automotive business in the coming decades? What role does the car in the future in the classical industrial countries, such as the one billion population are mobilized in the growth regions? These questions has been the consulting firm Roland Berger found in a global-scale study. We spoke with the automotive experts and Roland Berger Partner, Wolfgang Bernhart of the main messages of the long-term study.


Mr. Bernhart, in the year 2001, only three of the ten largest international car manufacturers with a development center in Asia, 2008, there were already nine, capacity building in China is breathtaking. How long can you go well that?

We expect to have the automotive industry of China in the long term annual growth rates of six to seven percent. China is a huge market volume, which is equivalent to no other market in the world. 2025 China will cover 31 percent of global car sales - in 2000 there were only three percent. In contrast, the share of the typical in industrialized countries is sold vehicles at the auto business world fall from 80 percent to 44 percent.

Which vehicle segments are among the winners?
Disproportionately high to grow the B segment and the premium segment in China, the A-and B-segment in 2025 account for around 37 percent. Basically, small is beautiful. Western producers have to worry about the long term, increased market volume in China, because the local manufacturers will cover the budget segment. Even in the U.S., the share of small cars by 2025 will increase from six to ten percent, while the large vehicles and pickups will continue to lose. We expect that its market share will decline from 22 to 25 percent.

Currently there is much talk about mobility concepts. Owning a car is the exception to be in personal mobility?
Owning a vehicle loses value almost everywhere as a status symbol. But this is a slow process. The "Demotorisierung" depends strongly on the urbanization and transport policies of the individual. Therefore, the car manufacturers to try many things. On the linkage with other modes of transport comes in the long run over anybody. Car-sharing is on an idealistic type of neighborhood, but it could in the next decade will be a real business model. This allows the modern technology. The question is, which companies and industries, it is possible to make profitable services out of the car sharing idea.

A mega trend Electrification: Many experts argue that the internal combustion engine will still make up for decades the main part of individual mobility.
Governments around the world have declared CO2 emissions and the fight ahead while Europe presses ahead on most. The goal for 2025 is in Europe, reduce fleet fuel consumption to 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer. That means an annual reduction of six percent by then. We believe that this reduction with the currently available technology can be achieved. It just is not enough to improve the combustion engine in its performance. Therefore, automobile manufacturers are coming to an electrification of the powertrain in all possible variations not pass if they want to achieve the intended goals of CO2.

Advise you to speed up government incentives for the development and dissemination of alternative propulsion?
The strongest drivers of electric vehicles are currently in state funding incentives. At the beginning it is necessary in our view, to support electric vehicles. This should happen not just financially. One can also consider other incentives, such as the use of bus lanes and free parking in the eye. As for the direct monetary incentives plays a certain predictability to the industry a very important role. The framework must be clear, the long term, if the automobile manufacturers must invest in electric vehicles.

What level of electrification in the future do you expect?
Overall, we expect that in 2025 more than ten percent of all new cars worldwide will run purely on electricity. In hybrid solutions will be different: we expect a 40 percent share of the car business. Verbrennerlösungen be pure but still make up about 50 percent of the market. In addition, there may occasionally fuel cell solutions, which should only come in single-digit percentage for light commercial vehicles.

Not only the markets and technology, the auto industry itself will change radically in the coming years and already is changing massively. What trends do you see?
In the next 15 years, the automotive industry is experiencing the most profound structural change in its history. Automotive manufacturers and suppliers can benefit from it, but they need to be much more flexible and develop a new business model: the way push model to pull out model, which is determined by the customer alone. The classic car industry still follows the old push model: A lot of money to invest to develop new car models and to build and then offer incentives to sell the vehicles produced. That has to change fundamentally. The customers of tomorrow should be at the forefront. There are companies outside the automotive industry often much more on the way to a pull model.

What exactly should the classic car industry do?
There are five key elements: first, speed - the product development must be accelerated. Second, OEMs need a greater flexibility in production. In third place are the networking and the convergence with other sectors, particularly IT and entertainment industries. Fourth, partnerships: the car manufacturers have focused more innovative partnerships with suppliers and business partners. And fifth, we need cultural openness in the globalized economy. This should not reflect only the products but also in management should be clear. The automobile industry here still cares very much about an island mentality.

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